TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 7

TROPICAL STORM “FLORITA” CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

Location of Center (7:00 PM): The center of Tropical Storm “FLORITA” was estimated based on all available data at 145 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.2°N, 123.5°E)

Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 996 hPa

Present Movement: Westward slowly

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 270 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 2 (Gale-force winds prevailing or expected within the next 24 hours)

LUZON

Cagayan, the southern portion of Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Is., Fuga Is.) Isabela, Quirino, the eastern and central portions of Nueva Vizcaya (Kayapa, Ambaguio, Solano, Villaverde, Bagabag, Diadi, Quezon, Bayombong, Bambang, Aritao, Dupax del Sur, Dupax del Norte, Kasibu, Alfonso Castaneda), Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Kibungan, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan, Bokod, Atok), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora)

–Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within the next 36 hours)

The rest of Babuyan Islands, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Benguet, La Union, the eastern and central portions of Pangasinan (Bani, Bolinao, City of Alaminos, Anda, Sual, Labrador, Bugallon, Aguilar, Mangatarem, Urbiztondo, Bayambang, Bautista, Alcala, Santo Tomas, Rosales, Balungao, Umingan, San Quintin, Natividad, San Nicolas, Tayug, Santa Maria, Asingan, San Manuel, Sison, Binalonan, City of Urdaneta, Villasis, Laoac, Pozorrubio, San Fabian, San Jacinto, Manaoag, Mapandan, Mangaldan, Santa Barbara, Malasiqui, Dagupan City, Calasiao, San Carlos City, Basista, Binmaley, Lingayen), the eastern portion of Tarlac (San Clemente, Camiling, Moncada, San Manuel, Anao, Santa Ignacia, Gerona, Paniqui, Ramos, Pura, Victoria, La Paz, City of Tarlac, Concepcion), Nueva Ecija, the rest of Aurora, the eastern portion of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba), the eastern portion of Bulacan (San Ildefonso, San Miguel, Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Rafael, Angat, Norzagaray, City of San Jose del Monte), the eastern portion of Rizal (Rodriguez, San Mateo, City of Antipolo, Tanay, Baras), the northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, General Nakar, Real) including Polillo Islands, the northern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Siniloan, Pangil, Pakil, Paete), and Camarines Norte –Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall

• Today: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Quezon including Polillo Islands. Moderate to heavy rains over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Cagayan. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Luzon, Batanes, Isabela, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Metro Manila, and the rest of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.

• Tomorrow: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Aurora, Zambales, and Bataan. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, and the rest of Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.

• In the next 24 hours, the Southwest Monsoon will bring monsoon rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas. For more information, refer to the Weather Advisory #2 issued at 11:00 AM today and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 PM today.

• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.

Severe Winds

• Winds may reach gale-force in strength in any of the areas where Wind Signal no. 2 is hoisted throughout the passage of Tropical Storm “FLORITA”.

• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal no. 1 is currently in effect.

• In the next 24 hours, gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale strength may be experienced (especially in the coastal and mountainous areas) over Bicol Region, Batangas, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern Samar, Antique, and Aklan as FLORITA begins to enhance the prevailing Southwest Monsoon.

• Areas where Wind Signals are hoisted will be expanded in succeeding bulletins, while the hoisted wind signals in some localities of the country will likely be upgraded as “FLORITA” moves closer. Based on the track and intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted throughout the passage is TCWS #3.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

• Under the influence of Tropical Storm “FLORITA” and the prevailing Southwest Monsoon, Gale Warning remains in effect over the northern, eastern, and southern seaboards of Luzon and western seaboard of Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 issued at 5:00 PM today.

• In the next 24 hours, the tropical storm will bring moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) over the western seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• Tropical Storm “FLORITA” will continue moving generally westward tonight before turning west northwestward tomorrow early morning. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is forecast to maintain this heading until it makes landfall in the vicinity of the east coast of Isabela or Cagayan tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, the center of FLORITA will traverse several provinces in Northern Luzon before emerging over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening or Wednesday early morning.

• “FLORITA” may further intensify into a severe tropical storm prior to its landfall. After landfall, there is a potential for slight weakening as FLORITA crosses the northern portion of Northern Luzon due to frictional effects of the rugged terrain. Outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, this tropical cyclone is forecast to re-intensify into severe tropical storm and may reach a peak intensity of 95 km/h.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

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