TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 4
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 4
Tropical Depression “#FloritaPH”
Issued at 5:00 AM, 22 August 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORITA MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF CAGAYAN
• Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Depression “FLORITA” was estimated based on all available data at 310 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.5°N, 125.0°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
• Present Movement:
West Southwestward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds extend outwards up to 220 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
• TCWS No. 1
(Strong winds prevailing or expected within the next 36 hours)
Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• Until tonight: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are possible over Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes, and Aurora.
• Tonight, through tomorrow evening: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region. Moderate to heavy rains over the northern portion of Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, and the rest of Cagayan Valley. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Central Luzon.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal no. 1 is currently in effect.
• In the next 24 hours, gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale strength may be experienced (especially in the coastal and mountainous areas) over Bicol Region, Batangas, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern Samar, Antique, and Aklan as FLORITA begins to enhanced the prevailing Southwest Monsoon.
• Areas where Wind Signals are hoisted will be expanded in succeeding bulletins, while the hoisted wind signals in some localities of the country will likely be upgraded as “FLORITA” moves closer. The hoisting of TCWS #2 is likely in some localities over the eastern section of Northern Luzon as early as today. Based on the track and intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal that may be hoisted throughout the passage is TCWS #3.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, the tropical depression will bring moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.1 m) over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Depression “FLORITA” will continue moving generally west southwestward or westward in the next 12 hours before turning west northwestward or northwestward this afternoon or evening. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is forecast to maintain this heading until it makes landfall in the vicinity of the east coast of Cagayan or northern Isabela on tomorrow afternoon. Afterwards, the center of FLORITA will traverse the Babuyan Channel and may pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands tomorrow evening or Wednesday early morning of Wednesday before emerging over the West Philippine Sea.
• “FLORITA” is forecast to reach tropical storm category today and may reach peak intensity of 95 km/h on Wednesday morning or afternoon outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. There is a potential for slight weakening as FLORITA crosses the northern portion of Northern Luzon due to frictional effects of the rugged terrain, but the tropical cyclone will likely remain Tropical Storm throughout the passage over land.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.