TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 19

Severe Tropical Storm “MaringPH” (KOMPASU)
Issued at 2:00 PM, 11 October 2021
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “MARING” ACCELERATES AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS BABUYAN ISLANDS.
• Location of Center (1:00 PM)
The center of Severe Tropical Storm “MARING” was estimated based on all available data at 150 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan or 170 km East Southeast of Calayan, Cagayan (18.8°N, 123.0°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa
• Present Movement
Westward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to
850 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
TCWS No.2 (Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)
Luzon:
Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Isabela (Palanan, Divilacan, Maconacon, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, Mallig, Quezon), Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur
TCWS No.1
(Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours)
Luzon:
The rest of Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, the northern portion of Bataan (Samal, Morong, Dinalupihan, Abucay, Orani, Hermosa), the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands, and Calaguas Islands
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Today, Severe Tropical Storm “MARING” will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Batanes, northern portion of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, Mountain Province, and Benguet. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the rest of mainland Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Luzon and the rest of Cagayan Valley. Under these conditions, scattered flash floods and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
• Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Severe Tropical Storm “MARING”, monsoon rains are possible over Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro in the next 24 hours. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #4 issued at 11:00 AM today and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
• Gale- to storm-force strength will be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 is in effect. This may result in generally light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.
• Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) with higher gusts will be experienced within any of the areas where TCWS #1 is currently in effect. This may generally bring up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
• Due to the expansive wind field of “MARING” and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon, occasional gusts reaching strong to gale-force in strength are possible over the island, coastal, and upland/mountain localities of Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Zamboanga del Norte, and the rest of Luzon.
Coastal Inundation
A minimal to moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching up to 1.0 m in height may occur in the next 24 hours. Rising sea water along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning #1 for Severe Tropical Storm “MARING” issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of Severe Tropical Storm “MARING”, a Gale Warning is in effect for the seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas and the western seaboard of Central Luzon that is not under the TCWS. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #7 (Intermediate) issued at 11:00 AM today.
• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (2.5 to 7.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect. These conditions are risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside.
• Within the same period, moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will prevail over the remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao. These conditions are risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• “MARING” will continue moving westward over the Luzon Strait between this afternoon and tomorrow early morning. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to pass very close or over the Babuyan Islands between this afternoon and evening. The possibility of landfall over mainland northern Cagayan or a close approach over Batanes is not yet ruled out.
• The tropical cyclone is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow morning. Outside the PAR, it will continue moving westward over the West Philippine Sea until it makes landfall in the vicinity of Hainan Island on Wednesday morning or afternoon.
• This tropical cyclone may reach typhoon category tomorrow afternoon or evening over the West Philippine Sea. Weakening will likely take place on Wednesday once “MARING” makes landfall in Hainan Island.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Unless superseded by an intermediate bulletin, the next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: bit.ly/3eujmdC