TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 | Severe Tropical Storm “NYATOH”

Issued at 11:00 PM, 01 December 2021
Valid for broadcast until the next advisory at 11:00 AM tomorrow
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NYATOH TURNS NORTH NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE EASTERN LIMIT OF THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)
Location of Center (10:00 PM)
The center of the Severe Tropical Storm “NYATOH” was estimated based on all available data at 1,225 km East of Southern Luzon (14.0°N, 136.0°E) (outside the PAR)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement
North northwestward at 10 km/h
GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
• Severe Tropical Storm “NYATOH” is forecast to move north northwestward in the next 12 hours. The center line of the current track forecast shows that this cyclone may not enter the PAR considering both the latest model guidance and the eastward shift in the previously issued track forecasts. However, considering the near-term probability cone, half of which still lies within the PAR region, the possibility of entry inside the PAR is still not ruled out.
• “NYATOH” is forecast to turn northeastward tomorrow evening or on Friday morning and will likely maintain this heading until the end of the forecast period while accelerating towards the mid-latitude region of the North Pacific.
• The tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify into typhoon in the next 12 hours. A peak intensity of around 140 km/h may be reached by Friday. Increasingly unfavorable environment will result in continuous weakening during the weekend. “NYATOH” may degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday as it embeds itself in an eastward-moving cold front.
• Despite its distance from the Philippine landmass, the trough of this severe tropical storm will bring increased likelihood of scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms over Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao in the next 24 hours. The public is advised to take appropriate measures and monitor for thunderstorm or rainfall advisories which may be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless an intermediate advisory or initial tropical cyclone bulletin is released, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 AM tomorrow.